Valid 2026-10-24 12:00 UTC – 2026-10-30 12:00 UTC

An upper-level high will continue nudging eastward from central into eastern portions of the CONUS ahead of a significant trough impacting the West. This pattern will continue near-normal temperatures amid dry conditions over much of the Southeast US. Vegetation in this area will become increasingly vulnerable to burning, especially across the southern Appalachian Mountains and the lower Mississippi River Valley, where ERCs are forecast to reach the 90-95th percentiles. While generally weak winds will limit the overall fire threat over much of the Southeast, breezy northeast winds over dry fuels of southern Georgia on Day 3/Saturday are worth noting. However, current forecast guidance indicates that afternoon RHs on Day 3/Saturday will struggle to fall below 40-45% where winds are anticipated to be the strongest (10-15 mph), precluding the need for any drawn areas.

Meanwhile, a significant trough will bring widespread precipitation to much of the western US preceding and lingering into Day 3/Saturday. This trough will then continue northeastward across the central Plains before lifting into the Great Lakes region by mid-next-week. This progression is likely to provide significant rainfall to portions of the central Plains while once again leaving portions of the northern High Plains (over parts of Wyoming and eastern Montana) with little to no accumulation. While no major fire weather concerns are on the horizon Day 3/Saturday or beyond, this area will be watched closely should additional wind events materialize.

Stearns · 10/22/2026