349 FNUS28 KWNS 122151 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will remain anchored over the southern Ontario/Quebec regions on Day 3/Sunday as an upper-level ridge continues to build over the West Coast. Simultaneously, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southward around the base of the persistent Canadian trough, tracking across the northern Rockies. The upper ridge is expected to break down mid-week as an upper jet max strengthens and progresses ahead of an incoming northern Pacific trough. This secondary trough is projected to move onshore into the Pacific Northwest by Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday, subsequently shifting the axis of the ridge eastward over the Great Plains. ...Day 3/Sunday - Portions of the Southwest... An upper-level ridge will remain across the western CONUS as a shortwave trough traverses the High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. A plume of mid-level moisture advecting northward from the Baja Peninsula on Day 2/Saturday will persist across the Southwest, promoting continued convective potential. Given dry antecedent fuel conditions resulting from consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy weather, dry thunderstorms will pose an ignition concern across southeastern NV into the Colorado Plateau where a 10% probability of dry thunderstorms has been introduced. Further spatial modifications to this risk area remain likely in upcoming outlook cycles as additional forecast guidance becomes available. ...Day 5-6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Parts of the Intermountain West... The eventual breakdown of the western ridge is expected to escalate fire weather concerns across the Intermountain West as the jet strengthens and gives way to another trough later next week. At least 2-3 days of well above normal surface temperatures will occur under the established ridge early next week, with record high temperatures forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the Pacific Northwest. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave is expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS - significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge dampens and begins to slide eastward, robust northwesterly flow aloft should foster breezy surface winds amid pre-existing very warm and dry conditions. Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been expanded from the Great Basin to portions of the Central Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$