629 FNUS21 KWNS 231610 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. Current satellite imagery portrays mostly clear skies across the fire weather risk areas. Very poor overnight humidity recoveries in the High Plains have resulted in widespread 15-25 percent RH values as depicted in morning surface observations. In eastern NM through the central TX Panhandle, Critical conditions are already being observed with sub-15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds over 20 mph (locally sporadic gusts over 35 mph). As mid/upper level moisture shifts southeast over the Continental Divide, cloud cover will gradually increase this afternoon with chances for precipitation over the central Plains, providing some relief to the fire environment. However, portions of the southern Plains are expected to remain under mostly clear skies through the evening. Minimal cloud cover will yield better boundary layer mixing, allowing Critical conditions to persist for up to 12 hours in some areas. A 700-850 mb jet will strengthen from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle this afternoon as the surface low deepens over northwestern OK, increasing concerns for localized extremely critical conditions to develop in terrain-influenced areas. Across southern New England, a breezy post frontal environment will develop in the wake of a passing dry cold front this afternoon. RH is expected to drop to 25-35 percent with increasing northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph at peak heating. However, marginal fuels and recent precipitation precludes the introduction of fire weather highlights. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and its accompanying mid-level jet streak will move into the central CONUS today. Simultaneously, a surface trough and cold front will advance through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. The most acute fire weather risks are centered over the central and southern High Plains, specifically behind and ahead of the cold front. Within this corridor, intense southwesterly winds will switch to the northwest following the frontal passage. When coupled with low humidity and exceptionally dry fuels, these factors will result in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions. ...Southern and Central Plains... Wind speeds just off the surface are expected to intensify from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by this afternoon, driven by surface cyclogenesis over southern KS and northwest OK. Given that the dryline is forecast to remain east of the Caprock through the morning, moisture recovery will be lackluster across eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. With only minimal upper level clouds today facilitating robust vertical mixing, expect RHs down to 10% or less, while sustained westerly winds reach 20-25 mph. The Critical area was expanded to include portions of northeast CO and southwest NE. At least a few hours of critical conditions are possible in northwest 15-20 mph winds behind the front before higher RHs move over the area late in the day. Isolated pockets of Extremely Critical conditions remain possible within the gap-flow corridors of southeast CO and other terrain-influenced areas stretching from eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle. In these localized areas, sustained winds of 30 mph will likely overlap with single-digit RHs. To the north, an Elevated fire weather threat will persist across the central Plains (including the remainder of eastern CO, western KS, and much of NE) as dry, post-frontal northwesterly winds benefit from downslope enhancement. This threat also encompasses portions of the High Plains where the arrival of dry post-frontal air may cause existing wildfires or dormant lightning holdovers from Wednesday to flare up under the sustained dry and breezy regime. Precipitation accumulation overnight will continue to be closely monitored over portions of eastern South Dakota where elevated wind/RH conditions are likely, but fuels are currently expected to become unreceptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$