Valid 2026-09-09 12:00 UTC – 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley

Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall severe weather threat does not appear likely.

Upper Ohio Valley into New York

A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat, but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

Bentley · 09/07/2026