Valid 2026-10-24 12:00 UTC – 2026-10-25 12:00 UTC

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS

Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.

Synopsis

Southern-stream cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the Lower CO Valley. Substantial upper ridging downstream across the MS Valley will limit the eastward progression of this cyclone, and the general expectation is for this cyclone to be centered over central AZ by early Sunday morning. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist between the western cyclone and eastern ridging, extending from northwest Mexico across NM and the central Plains. Lower surface pressure will also precede this cyclone, resulting in a tightened gradient and increased southeasterly low-level flow into the Southwest.

Central/southern NM into Far West TX

Increasing low-level moisture coupled with at least modest daytime heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon across central/southern NM into far west TX, downstream of the slowly approaching cyclone. Greatest low-level moisture (and resultant buoyancy) is expected from far west TX into southern NM, with more limited low-level moisture and buoyancy farther north. The moderately strong and deep southwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs, and an attendant potential for supercells with any persistent updrafts. Large hail should be the primary risk, with some threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes as well. A relatively higher severe risk could materialize from south-central NM into far west TX where higher dewpoints and stronger southeasterly surface winds are possible. Uncertainty regarding cloudiness and the quality of the low-level moisture precludes introduces any higher severe probabilities with this outlook.

Mosier · 10/22/2026