542 ACUS03 KWNS 230728 SWODY3 SPC AC 230727 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas during the evening. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of North Texas during the afternoon. ... Synopsis ... Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread the Southern and Central Plains on Saturday as the midlevel pattern responds to a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into the Southwest. This will induce strong southerly winds across the Plains, helping to quickly draw an old frontal boundary northward. This boundary should be oriented from northwest to southeast across portions of Oklahoma by late Saturday. ... Portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Arkansas ... Most of the day should be devoid of thunderstorms as mid-level heights rise downstream of a digging trough across the Southwest. At the same time, strong southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture northward from the far Southern Plains into the Central Plains. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in the development of strong instability across much of the area, as maximum SBCAPE values approach 4000 J/kg across portions of north Texas into central Oklahoma. During the late evening a subtle perturbation within the southwest flow is forecast to approach Oklahoma. In response to this, the low-level jet is forecast to increase to between 30 and 40 knots. As it crosses the northward moving warm front, this warm-air advection/isentropic ascent will combine with modest large-scale ascent from the approaching midlevel perturbation to support scattered thunderstorm develop on the north side of the moisture gradient. Although differences exist between the various models, the generic depiction of forecast soundings show long hodographs with varying degrees of low-level curvature in the presence of 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Thus, any storm that develops within the environment will be capable of producing all hazards initially. With time, thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more southeast moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds with perhaps a QLCS tornado threat. ... North Texas into Southern Oklahoma ... Diurnal heating of a moist airmass to the east of a dryline will result in an extremely unstable airmass developing by the afternoon. Although the region will be devoid of large-scale forcing for ascent, temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline may be sufficient to induce dryline circulations capable of initiating isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing very large hail. ..Marsh.. 04/23/2026 $$