134 ACUS02 KWNS 130517 SWODY2 SPC AC 130515 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area. ...Mid-Atlantic Region... An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during the afternoon and evening. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ. Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening. ...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex... A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface boundary will limit overall severe potential. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2026 $$