105 ACUS01 KWNS 131255 SWODY1 SPC AC 131253 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains to Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley... An active severe-weather day is anticipated with multiple rounds of severe storms expected regionally today into tonight. Near the nose of a southwesterly low-level jet, an initial early day severe risk will focus across southeast Nebraska, where elevated/increasingly organized storms are ongoing just after dawn, into southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Large hail will remain possible, but the potential for damaging winds may increase relatively early today as storms spread east-southeastward. Meanwhile, a more complex scenario exists farther south, attributable to persistent predawn storms across the Ozarks, as well as a decayed convective cluster and one or more residual MCVs across Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. These MCVs, as they focus deeper convection along modifying outflow/differential heating zones, should inspire renewed deeper convective development this afternoon across parts of the Ozarks toward the Mid-South/middle Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for some supercells and organizing clusters, with damaging winds and some hail as the primary hazards through evening. Farther west and later in the day, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered thunderstorm development near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development likely favoring where the front intercepts the west-southwest periphery of early day storms and any residual cloud cover/modifying outflow. This will likely include central/eastern Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska into western/northern Missouri. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will support initial intense semi-discrete supercells as then organizing clusters. All hazards seem likely including large hail, with damaging winds potentially evolving as the most prominent risk this evening, potentially including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes will also exist, particularly late afternoon into evening as the low-level jet increases, with modifying outflow potentially another factor across west/southwest Missouri and possibly far eastern Kansas and vicinity. ...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast... Ample heating within a moist environment south of a front will lead to moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage may occur this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/13/2026 $$